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Trading Ideas For Next Week [Week 2] (Part 1)

Trading Ideas For Next Week [Week 2] (Part 1)
Due to popular demand I've decided to bring this series back for a week 2 and I'll continue to release 3-5 trading ideas every Saturday. How do you guys feel about the name of this series? Would you like me to change the name to something like "Setup Saturdays" or are you guys cool with the current naming scheme?
So this week I wanted to be a lot more in depth in my analysis and setups since I didn't think I was super clear last week with my reasoning on some the setups. I want these posts to be as beginner friendly as possible because there's a lot more beginners in this Subreddit than I had realized. I want you to use this as an educational tool and not as a signal service as a result I'm going to give you possible trade setups and I want you to be the judge of whether you should enter once/if price gets to that point since I feel like that will benefit beginners in the long run. I got a couple questions about top down time frame analysis so that'll be a focus of today's post. Scroll down to NZDJPY if you really want an in-depth look at how I perform top down time frame analysis.
I'll include a picture of a chart and my TradingView chart so if you want to zoom in and out of the chart you'll have that ability to do so.
Quick Disclaimer: Some of the charts pricing might be off by a bit since I started working on this during the New York session on Friday. If any of the charts are impacted in a way that alters the setup I'll be sure to update the charts before I post this on Saturday. Just gotta hope that hope that Powell doesn't break the market or else I might have to redo this entire post.
AUDUSD:

AUDUSD Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/Wb5K2bS8-AUDUSD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Which way is the trend pointing? It looks like it's pointing up which we can see with the green trend line but how about we zoom in to the 4 hour char to see if that's actually the case.
Tip: When drawing a trend line, especially on the daily and higher time frames, remember to hit as many wicks as possible since they are relevant and not just some anomaly you can ignore.

AUDUSD 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/aah8294z-AUDUSD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: When we got close to where we are with price and we draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the point where price took off to the point where price peaked we can see that price came down to .5 Fibonacci level where it then started going up again. Coincidence? Possibly. As a result I believe that price could continue higher and it would be justified if it did. However, if we look at the trend lines we can see that price appears to have broke put of of our major trend line (Green) which means that price could fall to the downside if it's actually a breakout. Price then appears like it would then adhere to the new minor trend line (Red). There's also the possibility that this was just a fake breakout and price could go up and adhere to green trend line. I'm going to have a selling bias on this trade since price looks like it double topped at the highs of this year and it looks like we could see price fall. I'm leaning towards the drop of price due to the symmetrical triangle pattern created by the major and minor trend line and looks like price is going to get pushed down which we should get an idea of soon.
Tip: Every time price makes a large move and falls/rises after making a peak/valley always pull out the Fibonacci retracement tool to see if price will bounce from the .382, .5, or .618 levels as they are the most significant levels. This can tell you if you're going to likely get a trend continuation.

AUDUSD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/IHgrnfYs-AUDUSD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: I drew out multiple different scenarios which I think can play out since like I said before we're not trying to predict a single movement but we're preparing to be reactive to an ideal condition which may be thrown at us. Remember that major trend line we drew in on the daily chart well it's going to play a large role here. This trend line has been in the making since March so we're not just going to brush it off. The trend line appears to have been broken and we seem to be sticking that minor trend line after the break of the symmetrical triangle pattern. After the break of the symmetrical triangle pattern price usually gets pushed heavily to one side and it looks like price is wanting to get pushed to the downside. As a result, I'm going to really keep on eyes on scenario the blue arrows display since I think it's the most probable. Looking at the scenario there are going to be two potentially good entry points for a sell. The first being when price goes up to retest the green trend line which would also serve as a bounce from our red trend line. Once we get that bounce we could enter in for a sell with a take profit hopefully somewhere around the .66 area. Another good entry would be when price breaks the zone of support of .68 and after it retests it. Wait for a confirmation candlestick pattern showing price will fall when retesting (i.e. railroad track, bullish engulfment candle, evening star, shooting star, etc.). Look for these candlestick patterns on the 15 minute chart. Once you got the confirmation take the sell and ride price down to the .66 zone. The other scenario that could occur is we could see price go back into the green trend line by breaking the red trend line (Orange Arrows). If this occurs we want to catch the retest bounce of the red trend line and ride price up to the high of the year which is at .702. At that point price could break the resistance at which point we could catch the retest of the zone and ride price up. Or it could go up to .702 create a triple top and fall. If you get a candlestick confirmation saying it'll fall then take a sell at the high of the year.
NZDUSD:
If there's something I really like in Forex it's definitely got to be harmonic patterns due to their high accuracy. NZDUSD just recently completed one of them and this is a really good indicator of what price is going to do.

NZDUSD Daily
TradingView Chart For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/zQpHzUcK-NZDUSD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Yes, we have trend line that says that price is going up however I make exceptions for Harmonic patterns since they are accurate about 80%-90% of the time. The pattern you see above is know as a Bearish Bat Pattern. Like the name says it's an indicator that price is going to go Bearish so although the trend line is going up I'm going to have a bearish bias on this trade.

NZDUSD 4 Hour
TradingView Chart For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/C29kpCyO-NZDUSD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Not really much to add here just tossed on a Fibonacci retracement tool from where price took off to the peak just to check for any potential support from any of the major levels which we don't appear to have. We'll go a lot more in-depth on this pair on the 1 hour chart since that's where things get interesting.

NZDUSD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/dKJatcM7-NZDUSD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at price we can see that since June 11th price has been trading in a boxed consolidation range. Again I drew out the possibilities I believe could be ideal for us. Remember that I said Harmonics work 80%-90%. Well that means that they fail 10%-20% of the time which is definitely not something we can neglect. We can see that there's a descending triangle which price is reaching the end of. This means that price is getting ready to move to one direction since big moves always come after consolidation. If it moves to upside wait for price to close above the the spot marked D then you can enter for a buy and ride price up to the .67525 zone where price could break to upside or bounce back down (Orange Arrow). Remember to wait for it to actually close above point D since it could create a triple top and drive price back down. It's the same procedure as AUDUSD here if it makes this move where if it breaks it then catch the retest and if it looks like it's wanting to fall down wait for a confirmation pattern. If it breaks the box to the downside and breaks the support zone then take a sell and ride price down to the trend line at which point you should close the trade as there's a chance price could move against you and it's best to secure profits while you can. Once at the trend line it could bounce and if it does you should be able to ride price up to that .67525 zone (Green Arrow). If price breaks the trend line then wait for the retest and you should be able to ride price down pretty far (Red Arrows). I think you should be able to ride it down to .5918 zone but you'll have to keep your on it.
EURNZD:

EURNZD Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/jzgmGcRe-EURNZD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Well we got a pretty clear descending channel and price looks like it's at the top part of the channel currently so we're going to want to look for some optimal selling conditions due to the down trend.

EURNZD 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/YzOpvcH7-EURNZD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at the 4 hour chart we can see that there appears to be a symmetrical triangle coming to it's end meaning price is getting ready to get pushed to a side. I believe it'll break the triangle and fall to the downside so once you see it break it would be a good idea to take a sell and ride price down to that support zone at 1.7187. Price could also briefly break to the upside then bounce off the top of the channel and it does take a trade from the bounce and ride price down to the same support zone. At that point, I'll leave it up to you to determine how you think price will go and what you should be looking for. Consider it to be a little quiz if you want to think of it like that. You've got my charts so use them as a reference since I've already marked some crucial support/resistance zones which we should keep our on for the next couple weeks.

EURNZD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/ICWvgEsg-EURNZD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: There's nothing that special on the one hour chart that I have to point out since I think we pretty much got all the big stuff out of the way on our analysis of the 4 hour chart. Be sure to get a good sell in there since there are two potentially good setups which I've outlined for you. Also be sure to be careful and wait for the bounce of the channel if price goes that way since there's a chance price could break the channel and I don't want you to take a loss because you were impatient.
NZDJPY:
This pair is going to be really fun since we're going to be looking through a lot of time frames so if you really want to learn about a top down approach to analyzing time frames and trends then pay very close attention to how I break down this trade.

NZDJPY Monthly
TradingView Link For Monthly: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/jZh4F2Jv-NZDJPY-Monthly-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Yes, we're actually going to be looking at the monthly chart. I bet you guys don't do that very often. Looking at it we can see that price has been following a clear down trend line since late 2014. If you look at the wick of this month's candle you can see that it appears to have touched the trend line meaning we could see a good opportunity to catch a sell since it had just recently bounced off. Let's take a look at lower time frames to see if this continues to be true.

NZDJPY Weekly
TradingView Link For Weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/dpvI29BB-NZDJPY-Weekly-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: When zooming into the weekly we can see that using the wicks of the candles we can actually draw a channel for the low portion that runs pretty much in parallel to the trend line we drew on the monthly chart. We can see that price clearly bounced from the trend line and I think this gives us good reason to believe in the coming weeks we could see the price drop. Also looking at the Bollinger Bands we can see that price also bounced from the top band which also supports a drop of price. Let's go into the daily to see if we can get a better idea.

NZDJPY Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/NbWLURkU-NZDJPY-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at the daily time frame we can see that price is currently consolidated and remember big moves always come after consolidation. If you look closely however you can see that price looks like it's about to break the 200 day EMA (Orange line). If it breaks the EMA we could see price drop pretty far at an accelerated rate. Besides those couple observations there's not much else going on with the daily chart.

NZDJPY 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/d1kaogH5-NZDJPY-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Would you look at that, it looks like we got a descending triangle on the 4 hour chart which looks like it's coming to an end. Looking at price it looks like it's wanting to push to the downside. Once you get a break below the lows of the day of June 11th I think it would be a safe bet to take a sell trade and ride it down for 66.825 for this week. If it breaks the 66.825 support zone then I'll definitely take a sell and try to ride price down to the bottom of the channel which we drew on the weekly chart. There's also the possibility that price could take support at any of these support zones and then head back up to test the top of the channel. At which point I'll be looking to get into a sell at the top of the channel but I won't ride price up to the channel since at this current point in time I feel like there's a large amount of risk in that.

NZDJPY 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/83b47mFS-NZDJPY-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Not much more to add here since I think by this point we got the entire story so I'm not going to say much more about the 1 hour chart since I think the analysis for the 4 hour chart also sums this up pretty well.
Well that was a lot of information to go through and I hope you found some value in this since it took me quite a few hours to put this together for you guys. Truth be told, I spent most of Friday working on this so I hope at least one person finds some value in which case I'll consider it a win.
So you guys tired of me yet or do you want me to continue this series for a week 3? It takes a lot of time and effort to put this together so I'll only do it if people want it or else I'll pretty much feel like I wasted my time. I might put together a little lesson on how to use the COT in order to catch some big reversal moves in the market since the COT pretty much tells you what the hedge funds are doing and you also want to trade with the hedge funds and institutions. It'll probably take a couple weeks since I'll have to compile some data together and wait for a setup before putting that out but I'll be working on it. Are there any other things you may want explained? Let me know and I'll try to find setups which contain the topic you may want more details on. I hope you have a great trading week!
submitted by AD3133 to Forex [link] [comments]

So you wanna trade Forex? - tips and tricks inside

Let me just sum some stuff up for you newbies out there. Ive been trading for years, last couple of years more seriously and i turned my strategies into algorithms and i am currently up to 18 algorithms thats trading for me 24/7. Ive learned alot, listened to hundreds of podcasts and read tons of books + research papers and heres some tips and tricks for any newbie out there.

  1. Strategy - How to... When people say "you need a trading strategy!!" Its because trading is very hard and emotional. You need to stick to your rules at all times. Dont panic and move your stop loss or target unless your rules tell you to. Now how do you make these rules? Well this is the part that takes alot of time. If your rules are very simple (for example: "Buy if Last candles low was the lowest low of the past 10 candles." Lets make this a rule. You can backtest it manually by looking at a chart and going back in time and check every candle. or you can code it using super simple software like prorealtime, MT4 ++ Alot of software is basicly "click and drag" and press a button and it gives you backtest from 10-20-30 years ago in 5 seconds. This is the absolute easiest way to backtest rules and systems. If your trading "pure price action" with your drawn lines and shit, the only way to truly backtest that kind of trading is going in a random forex pair to a random point in time, could be 1 year ago, 1 month ago, 5 years ago.. and then you just trade! Move chart 1 candle at a time, draw your lines and do some "actual trading" and look at your results after moving forward in the chart. If you do not test your strategy your just going in blind, which could be disaster.. Maybe someone told u "this is the correct way to trade" or "this strategy is 90% sure to win every trade!!!" If you think you can do trading without a strategy, then your most likely going to look back at an empty account and wonder why you moved that stop loss or why you didnt take profit etc.. and then your gonna give up. People on youtube, forums, interwebz are not going to give you/sell you a working strategy thats gonna make you rich. If they had a working strategy, they would not give it away/sell it to you.
  2. Money management - How to.... Gonna keep this one short. Risk a small % of your capital on each trade. Dont risk 10%, dont risk 20%. You are going to see loosing trades, your probably gonna see 5-10 loss in a row!! If your trading a 1000$ account and your risking 100$ on each trade (10%) and you loose 5 in a row, your down -50% and probably you cant even trade cus of margin req. Game over.. Now how does one get super rich, super fast, from risking 1-3% of your account on each trade?? Well heres the shocking message: YOU CANT GET RICH FAST FROM TRADING UNLESS YOUR WILLING TO GO ALL IN! You can of course go all in on each trade and if you get em all right, you might get 1000%, then you go all in 1 more time and loose it all... The whole point of trading is NOT going bust. Not loosing everything, cus if you loose it all its game over and no more trading for you.
  3. Find your own trading style.... Everyone is different. You can have an average holding period of 1 month or you could be looking at a 1 min chart and average holding time = 10 minutes. For some, less volatility helps them sleep at night. For others, more volatility gives them a rush and some people crave this. There is no "correct" timeframes, or holding periods, or how much to profit or how much to loose. We are all individuals with different taste in risk. Some dont like risk, others wanna go all in to get rich over night. The smart approach is somewhere in the middle. If you dont risk anything, your not gonna get anything. If you risk everything, your most likely going to loose everything. When people are talking about trading style, this is kinda what that means.
  4. There are mainly 2 ways to trade: Divergence and Convergence. Or in other words: Mean reversion or trend following. Lets talk about them both: Trend following is trying to find a trend and stay with the trend until its over. Mean reversion is the belief that price is too far away from the average XX of price, and sooner or later, price will have to return to its average/mean (hence the name: MEAN reversion). Trend following systems usually see a lower winrate (30-40% winrate with no money management is not uncommon to see when backtesting trend following systems.. You can add good money management to get the winrate % higher. Why is the % winrate so low? Well a market, whatever that market is, tend to get real choppy and nasty right after a huge trend. So your gonna see alot of choppy fake signals that might kill 5-6 trades in a row, until the next huge trend starts which is going to cover all the losses from the small losses before the trend took off. Then you gotta hold that trade until trade is done. How do you define "when trend starts and stops"? Well thats back to point 1, find a strategy. Try defining rules for an entry and exit and see how it goes when you backtest it. For mean reversion the win % is usually high, like 70-90% winrate, but the average winning trade is alot smaller than the average loosing trade. this happens because you are basicly trying to catch a falling knife, or catch a booming rocket. Usually when trading mean reversion, waiting for price to actually reverse can very often leave you with being "too late", so you kinda have to find "the bottom" or "the top" before it actually has bottomed/ topped out and reversed. How can you do this you ask? Well your never going to hit every top or every bottom, but you can find ways to find "the bottom-ish" or "the top-ish", thens ell as soon as price reverts back to the mean. Sometimes your gonna wish you held on to the trade for longer, but again, back to point 1: Backtest your rules and figure that shit out.

Read these 4 points and try to follow them and you are at least 4 steps closer to being a profitable trader. Some might disagree with me on some points but i think for the majority, people are going to agree that these 4 points are pretty much universal. Most traders have done or are doing these things every day, in every trade.
Here is some GREAT material to read: Kevin Davey has won trading championship multiple times and he has written multiple great books, from beginner to advanced level. Recommend these books 100%, for example: Building winning algorithmic trading systems" will give you alot to work with when it comes to all 4 of the above points. Market wizards, Reminiscences of a stock operator are 2 books that are a great read but wont give you much "trading knowledge" that you can directly use for your trading. Books on "The turtles" are great reading. Then you have podcasts and youtube. I would stay away from youtube as much as possible when it comes to "Heres how to use the rsi!!!" or "this strategy will make you rich!!". Most youtube videoes are made by people who wanna sell you a course or a book. Most of this is just pure bullshit. Youtube can very harmfull and i would honestly advice about going there for "strategy adivce" and such. Podcasts tho are amazing, i highly recommend: Better systems trader, Chat with traders, Top traders unplugged, We study billionairs, to name a few :)
Also, on a less funny note.. Please realize that you are, and i am, real fucking stupid and lazy compared to the actual pro's out there. This is why you should not go "all in" on some blind stupid strategy youve heard about. This is why this is indeed VERY FUCKING HARD and most, if not everyone has busted an account or two before realizing just this. Your dumb.. your not going to be super rich within 1 year.. You can not start with 500$ account and make millions! (some might have been able to do this, but know that for every winner, theres 999 loosers behind him that failed... Might work fine first 5 trades, then 1 fuckup tho and ur gone..
And lastly: Try using a backtesting software. Its often FREE!!! (on a demo account) and often so simple a baby could use it. If your trading lines and such there exists web broweser "games" and softwares that lets you go "1 and 1 candle ahead" in random forex pairs and that lets you trade as if its "real" as it goes.
A big backtesting trap however is backtesting "losely" by just drawing lines and looking at chart going "oh i would have taken this trade FOR SURE!! I would have made so much money!!" however this is not actually backtesting, its cherry picking and its biased beyond the grave, and its going to hurt you. Try going 1 candle at a time doing "real and live" trades and see how it goes.

Bonus point!!
many people misunderstands what indicators like the RSI is telling you. Indeed something is "overbought" or "oversold" but only compared to the last average of xx amounts of bars/candles.
It doesn't tell you that RIGHT NOW is a great time to sell or buy. It only tells you that the math formula that is RSI, gives you a number between 1-100, and when its above 70 its telling you that momentum is up compared to the last average 14 candles. This is not a complete buy/sell signal. Its more like a filter if anything. This is true for MOST indicators. They INDICATE stuff. Dont use them as pure buy/sell signals.. At least backtest that shit first! Your probably gonna be shocked at the shitty results if you "buy wehn rsi is undeer 30 and sell when RSI is above 70".

Editedit: Huge post already, why not copy paste my comment with an example showing the difference in trend following vs mean reversion:
The thing about trend following is that we never know when a trade starts and when it ends. So what often happens is that you have to buy every breakout going up, but not every breakout is a new trend. Lets do an example. Check out the photo i included here: https://imageshost.eu/image/image.RcC

THE PHOTO IS JUST AN EXAMPLE THAT SHOWS WHY A TYPICAL TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGY HAVE A "LOW" WINRATE.
THE PHOTO IS NOT SHOWING AN EXAMPLE OF MY STRATEGIES OR TRADING.

  1. We identify the big orange trend up.
  2. We see the big break down (marked with the vertical red line) this is telling us we are not going higher just yet. Our upwards trend is broken. However we might continue going up in a new trend, but when will that trend come?
  3. We can draw the blue trend very earyly using highs and lows, lines up and down. Then we begin to look for breakouts of the upper blue line. So every time price breaks upper blue line we have to buy (cus how else are we going to "catch the next trend going up?)
As you can see we get 5 false breakouts before the real breakout happens!
Now if you could tell fake breakouts from real breakouts, your gonna be rich hehe. For everyone else: Take every signal you can get, put a "tight" stop loss so in case its a fake signal you only loose a little bit. Then when breakout happens as you can clearly see in chart, your going to make back all the small losses.
So in this example we fail 5 times, but get 1 HUGE new trend going further up. This 1 huge trade, unless we fuck it up and take profits too early or shit like that, is going to win back all those small losses + more.
This is why trend following has a low winrate. You get 5 small loss and 1 big win.

Now lets flip this! Imagine if your trading Mean reversion on all the same red arrows! So every time price hits the blue line, we go short back to the bottom (or middle) again! You would have won 5 trades with small profits, but on that last one you would get stopped out so hard. Meaning 5 small wins, 1 big loss (as some have pointed out in comments, if you where trading mean reverting you would wanna buy the lows as well as short the tops - photo was suppose to show why trend following strategies have a lower % winrate.)

Final edit: sorry this looks like a wall of text on ur phones.
submitted by RipRepRop to Forex [link] [comments]

Shorting Noobs - Fake News, False Breakouts and the Sneeze.

Shorting Noobs - Fake News, False Breakouts and the Sneeze.
Part [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
In preparation for the possibility of GBPUSD (et al) making some major spike out moves on large charts and potentially entering into sharp corrective moves, I've been honing in on another area of trend trading mistakes. Up to now, the main focus has been on the 50/61 trap [2] [3]. This has been largely effective. Some pretty wild swings, but it's ultimately swinging in the right direction. This is to be expected. Markets have made this sort of pattern for decades. I've no idea why people think it's not there or is going away any time soon. For the time being, betting on it has great odds.

I've said in previous posts the 61.8 trap formation is one of the areas where most of the money is made and lost in Forex. This is the other one. Between these two points, it would be my guess this is where most retail traders lose their money. It's where I've lost most of mine, I am sure of that. They are cunning traps, and these traps snap down hard. In the 50/61 trap section we've covered how to enter into the start of trend legs, and now we'll cover how to exit at the optimum profit level (and reverse).

We'll start looking at what I've explained previously while alluding to this mistake. This is the first selling mistake, indicated in the chart here with a 3 as we switch from black to blue.

https://preview.redd.it/l0hwb7k9eqi31.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=a49ea3bbf2cac1ecaca171baa16b5cac241b2111
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/

The mistake is explained as "breakout trading rushing in", and also as an area people are stopped out using H/L rules.
I've explain many times in many ways how news events can carry what essentially amounts to misinformation in terms of what you do in trading, and how these events are often found marking out the extremes in trend moves. I've mainly focused on entering in line with the trend to this point, but the same is true for the end of a trend/start of correction.

https://preview.redd.it/k3m9fkngfqi31.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f2b56e619445b0ce8e58352bfbca02e6428ae42
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/

I've also explained how I design my trade plans ignoring any news there may be in the sense that I do not do analysis on it (or try to guess it). While doing this I've explained that I do think it's very possible news events will feature during the moves. They usually do. I do not need to know about them. All I need to do is make a trade plan that understands it might have volatile moves in it, and how a person would give themselves the best chance to profit from that.

https://preview.redd.it/0dboiov1gqi31.png?width=709&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b89626b18a18452b27ef2756631bd58d6ca445

This news stuff is very important. You need to understand that when I think about news events, I think of them in terms of the sort of price moves they create ... because nothing else matters!
I know in some parts of the cycles price moves fast. Sometimes it moves in ways that abnormal, seeming. I also know that when there are news events, these are the things that happen. So when we are trading in areas where I know price can move aggressively, I also know there may be news triggers for this. Here are the areas I'd expect news triggers. Red circles are sell news and green buy news.

https://preview.redd.it/sj07v00khqi31.png?width=736&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f71af323d151cfc6fe6b83f2c19465b3c8c907c
Of course, the way the market actually moves does not have to make any sense at all relative to the news. Let's face it, it rarely does. Not without some mental gymnastics anyway. This is why I'm not paying attention to that. There are points at which I actually expect the news move to make no sense at all. One of these is in the rally to retest the high, notice the circle for the news event is before the spike up.
So when I make winning trades that take profit in some news event, it's entirely correct to say I did not know that was going to happen. However, it's entirely incorrect to assume I did not calculate there being "some event". It is wrong to think yourself mere cannon fodder to these sorts of events, you can do better (Test! I'd like you to come to understand this, and it must be learned, there's only so much I can teach).

Now, I had been setting this up to trade the possible swing from GBPUSD making a spike out low, and this would have been some time from now (at least days, I'd expect) but we've got a chance to test out this feature early using social indicators. Social indicators are a thing. They are really useful for spotting these.

https://preview.redd.it/b458e36bkqi31.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=49d8e44741989d6c8ee7121733f0d2dd7b2e31ab
Main sorts of indicators. "What just happened?", "HUGE breakout on XXXXXX", "Game changing news .... XXXXXX breaks the highs ... to the moon". Any of this stuff, when you see it and go look on a chart for counter signals of whatever it is that is implying. Look and see if we've had the conditions that predict this kind of breakout - then fade the public chatter.
Look out for flash in the pan news events. Do not follow these, they are nonsense. I promise you, when there's someone who tells you otherwise talking about what they think happened, I am executing on my positions. When they first found out something was happening, I may well have been hitting my take profits.

These "market movers" tend to be over and done with in an hour. Unless you followed them ... then you're stuck in a shitty trade for as long as that takes.

Bringing us to our social trigger. Someone posts a Trump tweet. Apparently these are important. I've not noticed. I am in trading positions most of the time he tweets, usually a few days later I find out that was "why it happened". The thought of using this for real time indicators to follow is madness to me, now. There's a time I'd have thought that perfectly logical. When you do the charting hours, it does not make sense. So should be ignored.


https://preview.redd.it/fy503xs3kqi31.png?width=506&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c4ffa3db2d85fd672e4665185636202e3de7dfe

Maybe not entirely ignored. When I seen this, I went and checked for counter trading signals on USDJPY. Seen one instantly (social indicators are fucking accurate, I'm being serious).
This was the position I took. I also suggested the poster stopped following this bullshit.

https://preview.redd.it/kjzszt9ylqi31.png?width=689&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cda228fd244b558cfe3efaecb171bb7cbfaa8bf
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cvdjzv/will_the_usdjpy_breakout/ey3xr6y/?context=3

I explained the mistake.
https://preview.redd.it/qbl9mbdamqi31.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=e346d013d4c4919ae709f6be22d476917194fcb7
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cvdjzv/will_the_usdjpy_breakout/ey43knb/?context=3

Here is what that looks like on a chart. Blue circle is where the breakout alert comes, green circle is where I bought.

https://preview.redd.it/uc33jx6roqi31.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=7df939a336ef903f67628fc9a410cf452c84a356
We can see this is probably not something we want to be basing our trading decision on. Quite evidently.
After taking my position, I took some time to explain the situation to someone who commented saying they'd bailed out on a sell after reading through my posts (good things happen when you read my posts with an open mind). Price spiked 100 pips from the price they escaped on.

https://preview.redd.it/9gwu2mfdpqi31.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=23e5a1a7fdd0d076e38f1d6318845848041cf1f0

https://preview.redd.it/99vbci1gpqi31.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bba455a946f836fe94e4f82b08f2481e4edcb02

So our strategy to trade from here is simple. We buy into the sharp drops on USDJPY. We watch for short term drops and mini false breakouts - then we buy for the "swish" up move. The same strategy I said could be used on GBPUSD early last week, you know ... before the news made it happen.

We do have to be cautious, price can re-test the lows (and it can do it in one big fast candle). It can even make a further breakout (which could be stronger). For as long as USDJPY trades above the lows it's made in the start of the week, though we should see all drops in price as opportunities to buy with great risk:reward.
With this in mind, I've activated my trend traders on USDJPY, they should start to sell the false sell offs for me, and be putting me in nicely near the end of the bear traps. We might be on the way to seller mistake #2. Where the break/retest trade fails, and if we this should be very profitable betting against those who get slaughtered in the quick correction.

Update:
This has done really well, as would be expected. This really is a deadly part of the market for trend followers.

https://preview.redd.it/yi8qqdjq7ri31.png?width=817&format=png&auto=webp&s=eeb5ade882dfc3a7ff1d17bfbd432f994be7065d
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

1. Breakout

Breakout strategies center around when the price clears a specified level on your chart, with increased volume. The breakout trader enters into a long position after the asset or security breaks above resistance. Alternatively, you enter a short position once the stock breaks below support.
After an asset or security trades beyond the specified price barrier, volatility usually increases and prices will often trend in the direction of the breakout.
You need to find the right instrument to trade. When doing this bear in mind the asset’s support and resistance levels. The more frequently the price has hit these points, the more validated and important they become.

Entry Points

This part is nice and straightforward. Prices set to close and above resistance levels require a bearish position. Prices set to close and below a support level need a bullish position.

Plan your exits

Use the asset’s recent performance to establish a reasonable price target. Using chart patterns will make this process even more accurate. You can calculate the average recent price swings to create a target. If the average price swing has been 3 points over the last several price swings, this would be a sensible target. Once you’ve reached that goal you can exit the trade and enjoy the profit.
https://preview.redd.it/0oj4a1xlvdh31.png?width=773&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f2aa07b0c7caeeb00c4f997c12e814abbd380da

2. Scalping

One of the most popular strategies is scalping. It’s particularly popular in the forex market, and it looks to capitalise on minute price changes. The driving force is quantity. You will look to sell as soon as the trade becomes profitable. This is a fast-paced and exciting way to trade, but it can be risky. You need a high trading probability to even out the low risk vs reward ratio.
Be on the lookout for volatile instruments, attractive liquidity and be hot on timing. You can’t wait for the market, you need to close losing trades as soon as possible.
https://preview.redd.it/dzaf7t1nvdh31.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3d96d74311de806c3809698df2a964e3eb4db5e

3. Momentum

Popular amongst trading strategies for beginners, this strategy revolves around acting on news sources and identifying substantial trending moves with the support of high volume. There is always at least one stock that moves around 20-30% each day, so there’s ample opportunity. You simply hold onto your position until you see signs of reversal and then get out.
Alternatively, you can fade the price drop. This way round your price target is as soon as volume starts to diminish.
This strategy is simple and effective if used correctly. However, you must ensure you’re aware of upcoming news and earnings announcements. Just a few seconds on each trade will make all the difference to your end of day profits.
https://preview.redd.it/z4r2o6covdh31.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b054c77c4bc5978821e879eff73d613d728cb0cf

4. Reversal

Although hotly debated and potentially dangerous when used by beginners, reverse trading is used all over the world. It’s also known as trend trading, pull back trending and a mean reversion strategy.
This strategy defies basic logic as you aim to trade against the trend. You need to be able to accurately identify possible pullbacks, plus predict their strength. To do this effectively you need in-depth market knowledge and experience.
The ‘daily pivot’ strategy is considered a unique case of reverse trading, as it centers on buying and selling the daily low and high pullbacks/reverse.
https://preview.redd.it/4ya3txcpvdh31.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40216413b1376b2d6d5a67e4d09057f55be6ba1

5. Using Pivot Points

A day trading pivot point strategy can be fantastic for identifying and acting on critical support and/or resistance levels. It is particularly useful in the forex market. In addition, it can be used by range-bound traders to identify points of entry, while trend and breakout traders can use pivot points to locate key levels that need to break for a move to count as a breakout.

Calculating Pivot Points

A pivot point is defined as a point of rotation. You use the prices of the previous day’s high and low, plus the closing price of a security to calculate the pivot point.
Note that if you calculate a pivot point using price information from a relatively short time frame, accuracy is often reduced.
So, how do you calculate a pivot point?
  • Central Pivot Point (P) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
You can then calculate support and resistance levels using the pivot point. To do that you will need to use the following formulas:
  • First Resistance (R1) = (2*P) – Low
  • First Support (S1) = (2*P) – High
The second level of support and resistance is then calculated as follows:
  • Second Resistance (R2) = P + (R1-S1)
  • Second Support (S2) = P – (R1- S1)

Application

When applied to the FX market, for example, you will find the trading range for the session often takes place between the pivot point and the first support and resistance levels. This is because a high number of traders play this range.
It’s also worth noting, this is one of the systems & methods that can be applied to indexes too. For example, it can help form an effective S&P day trading strategy

6. Moving Average Crossover

You will need three moving average lines:
  • One set at 20 periods – This is your fast moving average
  • One set at 60 periods – This is your slow moving average
  • One set at 100 periods – This is your trend indicator
This is one of the moving averages strategies that generates a buy signal when the fast moving average crosses up and over the slow moving average. A sell signal is generated simply when the fast moving average crosses below the slow moving average.
So, You’ll open a position when the moving average line crosses in one direction and you’ll close the position when it crosses back the opposite way.
How can you establish there’s definitely a trend? You know the trend is on if the price bar stays above or below the 100-period line.

the source : https://www.daytrading.com/strategies
submitted by JalelTounsi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

How to correctly draw support and resistance levels

How to correctly draw support and resistance levels
(This post is mainly for beginners in Forex that are struggling in support and resistance levels, although you more experienced guys might also learn a thing or two, this also doesn't go over how to use them to enter trades, although I could make a post about it if it is requested)

How to correctly mark support & resistance in most markets

First thing to realise is that s&r levels are not really levels, they are zones, sometimes the price just misses the level and other times it goes just over, but it still reverses/breaks out off the general level. You will rarely find the exact level of where the price will reverse. There is no exact criteria on what makes a level significant levels, but you will eventually get better as you pipe in more experience into the market.

What even is a support/resistance zone?
Simply put a support or resistance zone is a price the market has had experience with before. In the book "Naked Forex" Alex Nekritin puts perfectly that s/r zones are just market scars. Market scars that the price has visited before and will try to stay away from as best as it can (but sometimes breakouts occur, more on that later).
Do zones expire?
This is very subjective, some say the older the level the less valid it may be, and others vice versa. I personally believe they don't expire and significant zones stay valid unless disapproved by appropriate price action. Your answer may be completely different, everyone's experience with the market is different
What are these "breakouts"?
Breakouts are when the price doesn't respect the level. Most of the time the price respects a level and reverses off it, however that can only happen for some time, (if this happens for a period of time where the price is bouncing off a support and resistance it is known as consolidation). Of course it can't keep trading in a range forever, breakouts have to happen. Breakouts mostly happen within high volatility, either from news or just the time the market is open, however the price can also just wonder through the zone, creating a less volatile breakout. You may also experience the price going over a zone and then returning into it;

On chart 1 below you can see a bland chart, just load up any trading software and you should see something like this. We can see the price recently has been on a decline on the last four candles.
EURUSD H1 (Chart 1)
To the untrained trader, this looks like guess work to place a good significant level. Wicks flying everywhere, this is where tip #1 comes in.

Tip #1: Change your candlestick chart into a line graph
EURUSD H1 (Chart 2)
This very simple tool removes all of the wick clutter and just gives a nice line of how the price has been moving (Keep in mind this only shows the close of the time frame and doesn't include wicks). Thus it makes marking s/r lines way way easier. Just off this you can place lines where the price has reversed, don't add too many as that could also be too bad for you (check tip #2)
Another thing to keep in mind is that if a price curves and reverses, this usually shows a stall on the zone and is an important level to manage. (Check Chart 3)
On Chart 3 you can see some levels I've added in that respond to the recent price on the line chart:
EURUSD H1 With S/R (Chart 3)
After you've added your s/r you can switch back to normal candle sticks to further evaluate your zones.
EURUSD H1 With S/R Candlesticks (Chart 4)

Tip #2: Don't over-add unnecessary levels
This mostly occurs if you don't have patience with the market and want to rush into a trade. Don't try and scavenge for any little s/r zone as they could easily end up failing if they haven't been tested and confirmed. It will also prevent you from finding any valuable trades.
You don't want your chart looking like this, where would you even start looking for an entry?
Jumble of messy lines
Tip #3: Draw major zones on higher time frames
Say you enter your trades mostly on H4, draw your major zones on the D1 chart. As well as this you can draw minor zones in time frames smaller than your usual one, like from H4 to H1.
Just a little tip you could keep in mind.

Those are just three tips that really help me out when drawing my s&r zones (they might not work out for you but it's worth giving them a shot) and I have tried making this post as beginner friendly as possible, so I really hope you all learned something from this post.

This post was heavily inspired by Naked Forex, you can find a PDF of it here
Edit: Typos
submitted by indicasFinest to Forex [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency price analysis: waiting for a new rise

Cryptocurrency price analysis: waiting for a new rise

https://preview.redd.it/2bx1unugrpv31.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d5d842ae15e44eb592010bbf6c985cd519e0433
Leading RoboForex analyst Dmitry Gurkovsky tells about further possible scenarios of bitcoin price movement and several popular altcoins.
Buyers managed to show a good rebound up. At the moment, assets such as bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash look very interesting in the context of continued growth. Moreover, if the BCH/USD chart shows the formation of a reversal pattern inverted "Head and shoulders" in favor of growth, then BTC is still preparing to leave the channel and continue a confident upward movement.
Unfortunately, Ethereum, Litecoin and EOS assets are still under pressure. There are several signals from the daily charts in favor of a downward movement. However, if the bulls manage to break through the nearest resistance levels, then these assets will be ready to move to a phase of sustainable growth.
In General, the cryptocurrency market looks ready for the beginning of a new wave of growth. The bulls can only hold the current levels and rise a little higher to deprive the bears of all chances to continue the downward correction.

Bitcoin

Quotes showed an aggressive rebound from the support level. However, the price tested resistance in the form of a downtrend near the $9800 area. For a full extension of the lifting by the buyer it is important to "push out" rates are even higher.
A good signal in favor of the likely continuation of growth is the breakdown of the downward trend line on the RSI indicator. In most cases, there is a return to the broken line, after which we should expect continued growth. As the main trading idea, you can take a slight correction to the level of $7700, after which you can talk about a rebound and an upward movement.
The cancellation of this option would be the drop in prices of digital asset below $6875, which indicates a breakout of the lower border of the channel and continue falling.
Daily BTC/USD chart from TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, cryptocurrency quotes were able to leave the limits of the short-term downward channel. This signal is the first sign of a potential reversal of the current downward correction. However, confirmation of the completion of the fall will be a strong growth with a consolidation above the level of $10,995, which will indicate an exit beyond the downward channel. In this case, the target of the movement will be the $12,405 area.
The RSI indicator values again pushed off from the resistance level, so we should expect a decrease and a test of the broken channel border. After this movement, we can talk about the beginning of growth to the target at $10,995.

Four-hour BTC/USD chart from TradingView

Ethereum

Ethereum buyers also managed to keep quotes in the support area, which is located at $147. At the moment, the price has once again returned to the area between the moving averages, which may provoke an attempt to further decline.
In favor of this option is a rebound from the downward resistance line on the RSI indicator. As the main idea, we should expect a rebound from the lower border of the ascending channel and a continuation of the fall to the first target at $147. Its breakdown will open the way for the movement of quotations to the level of $100. The cancellation of the negative option will be the breakdown of the Moving averages and the consolidation of ETH/USB above the level of $239. In this case, we can talk about the continuation of the rise to the goal at $280.
Daily EUUSD chart from TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes are clamped within the descending channel. The RSI indicator values again test the resistance line, so we should expect a rebound and a fall in the quotes of the digital asset to the level of $150. In favor of this option, the upper limit of the descending channel will also be tested. The cancellation of the proposed forecast will be the breakdown of the resistance level and consolidation above $202, which will indicate the exit of quotations beyond the ascending channel. In this case, the goal of the rise will be the level of $239.
Four-hour EUUSD chart from TradingView

Litecoin

On the daily chart, the RSI indicator values test the resistance line. It is premature to talk about a reversal — as we can see, the pressure from the sellers remains. Moving averages also indicate a bearish trend. There are risks to see a rebound from the resistance level and another attempt to fall to the level of $41.
The cancellation of the negative option for the bulls will be a strong growth with a breakdown of the level of $79, which will indicate the return of quotes inside the ascending channel and the continuation of the rise to the first target at $107.
Daily LTC/USD chart from TradingView
At smaller time intervals Litecoin tests the upper boundary of the descending channel. As you can see, prices are repelled from the level of $64. The RSI indicator values here also tested the resistance line. As the main option, we should expect a fall to the level of $41. The cancellation of such a scenario will be the breakdown of the upper border of the descending channel. In this case, the growth target should be considered the $79 area.
TradingView's four-hour LTC/USD chart

EOS

EOS buyers are trying to turn the tide in favor of growth. However, here on the daily chart, the RSI indicator values test the resistance line. Previously, we have already seen a rebound from it, so while the values are lower, we should expect a fall in quotations.
The immediate target of the decline may be the area at the level of $2, the breakdown of which will indicate a movement to the level of $1.45. The cancellation of the option with a decrease will be a strong rise in the value of EOS and the consolidation of the asset price above the level of $4.29, which will also provoke a breakdown of the resistance line by the values of the RSI indicator. In this case, the growth target may be the $5.35 area.
Daily EUUSD chart from TradingView
At small time intervals, the quotes pushed off from the upper border of the descending channel. If the bears manage to increase the pressure, the $2.06 and $1.45 levels may be the target of the fall. In favor of this option, the resistance line test on the RSI indicator also speaks.
Confirmation of the fall will be the consolidation of EOS quotes under the level of $2.97. The cancellation of this scenario will be the breakdown of the upper border of the descending channel. In this case, the growth target will be $4.29 and $5.35.
Four-hour EUUSD chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Cash

On the daily chart, buyers managed to break through the downtrend line. The value of the RSI indicator has also strengthened above the resistance line. All these signals point to a potential continuation of growth towards the first target at $355. The breakdown of this area will give impetus to the movement to the level of $457.
However, we should not exclude the development of a minor correction with the test of a broken trend line on the RSI indicator. The target of the correction may be the $245 area. The cancellation of the option with growth will be the fall and breakdown of the local minimum with the consolidation of quotations under the level of $200. In this case, we should expect a decline in the price to the level of $165.45.
Daily BCH/USD chart from TradingView
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes also fixed above the short-term descending channel. It is not necessary to exclude attempts of formation of the inverted model "Head and shoulders". As you can see, the price is enough to fall to the level of $245 to complete the formation of the right" shoulder " of the model, after which we should expect the beginning of a strong growth.
A good signal for the continuation of the rise will be the consolidation of the price above the level of $335.2. Cancellation option growth will drop and the breakdown of support level with closing prices below the level of $199, which is expected to continue falling.
TradingView's four-hour BCH/USD chart
submitted by AVAY11 to u/AVAY11 [link] [comments]

[educational] Technical analysis, patterns, and charts analysis for the day trader

[educational] Technical analysis, patterns, and charts analysis for the day trader
Chart patterns form a key part of day trading. Candlestick and other charts produce frequent signals that cut through price action “noise”.
The best patterns will be those that can form the backbone of a profitable day trading strategy, whether trading stocks, cryptocurrency of forex pairs.
Every day you have to choose between hundreds of trading opportunities. This is a result of a wide range of factors influencing the market. Day trading patterns enable you to decipher the multitude of options and motivations – from hope of gain and fear of loss, to short-covering, stop-loss triggers, hedging, tax consequences and plenty more.
Candlestick patterns help by painting a clear picture, and flagging up trading signals and signs of future price movements. Whilst it’s said you’ll need to use technical analysis to succeed day trading with candlestick and other patterns, it’s important to note utilizing them to your advantage is more of an art form than a rigid science.
You have to learn the power of chart patterns and the theory that governs them in order to identify the best patterns to supplement your trading style and strategies.

Use In Day Trading

Used correctly trading patterns can add a powerful tool to your arsenal. This is because history has a habit of repeating itself and the financial markets are no exception. This repetition can help you identify opportunities and anticipate potential pitfalls.
RSI, volume, plus support and resistance levels all aide your technical analysis when you’re trading. But crypto chart patterns play a crucial role in identifying breakouts and trend reversals. Mastering the art of reading these patterns will help you make smarter trades and bolster your profits, as highlighted in the highly regarded, ‘stock patterns for day trading’, by Barry Rudd.

Breakouts & Reversals

In the patterns and charts below you’ll see two recurring themes, breakouts and reversals.
  • Breakout – A breakout is simply when the price clears a specified critical level on your chart. This level could by any number of things, from a Fibonacci level, to support, resistance or trend lines.
  • Reversal – A reversal is simply a change in direction of a price trend. That change could be either positive or negative against the prevailing trend. You may also hear it called a ‘rally’, ‘correction’, or ‘trend reversal’.

Candlestick Charts

Candlestick charts are a technical tool at your disposal. They consolidate data within given time frames into single bars. Not only are the patterns relatively straightforward to interpret, but trading with candle patterns can help you attain that competitive edge over the rest of the market.
They first originated in the 18th century where they were used by Japanese rice traders. Since Steve Nison introduced them to the West with his 1991 book ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques’, their popularity has surged.
Below is a break down of three of the most popular candlestick patterns used for day trading.

Shooting Star Candlestick

This is often one of the first you see when you open a chart with candlestick patterns. This bearish reversal candlestick suggests a peak. It is precisely the opposite of a hammer candle. It won’t form until at least three subsequent green candles have materialized. This will indicate an increase in price and demand. Usually, buyers lose their cool and clamber for the price to increasing highs before they realize they’ve overpaid.
The upper shadow is usually twice the size of the body. This tells you the last frantic buyers have entered trading just as those that have turned a profit have off-loaded their positions. Short-sellers then usually force the price down to the close of the candle either near or below the open. This traps the late arrivals who pushed the price high. Panic often kicks in at this point as those late arrivals swiftly exit their positions.

https://preview.redd.it/gf5dwjhbrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=437ff856bfd6ebc95da34528462ba224d964f01f

Doji Candlestick

One of the most popular candlestick patterns for trading forex is the doji candlestick (doji signifies indecision). This reversal pattern is either bearish or bullish depending on the previous candles. It will have nearly, or the same open and closing price with long shadows. It may look like a cross, but it can have an extremely small body. You will often get an indicator as to which way the reversal will head from the previous candles.
If you see previous candles are bullish, you can anticipate the next one near the underneath of the body low will trigger a short/sell signal when the doji lows break. You’ll then see trail stops above the doji highs.
Alternatively, if the previous candles are bearish then the doji will probably form a bullish reversal. Above the candlestick high, long triggers usually form with a trail stop directly under the doji low.
These candlestick patterns could be used for intraday trading with forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies and any number of other assets. But using candlestick patterns for trading interpretations requires experience, so practice on a demo account before you put real money on the line.

https://preview.redd.it/4yo650lcrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2aa3cdeef23e44e1e3e3047bbe2604fce0a4768

Hammer Candlestick

This is a bullish reversal candlestick. You can use this candlestick to establish capitulation bottoms. These are then normally followed by a price bump, allowing you to enter a long position.
The hammer candlestick forms at the end of a downtrend and suggests a near-term price bottom. The lower shadow is made by a new low in the downtrend pattern that then closes back near the open. The tail (lower shadow), must be a minimum of twice the size of the actual body.
The tails are those that stopped out as shorts started to cover their positions and those looking for a bargain decided to feast. Volume can also help hammer home the candle. To be certain it is a hammer candle, check where the next candle closes. It must close above the hammer candle low.
Trading with Japanese candlestick patterns has become increasingly popular in recent decades, as a result of the easy to glean and detailed information they provide. This makes them ideal for charts for beginners to get familiar with.

https://preview.redd.it/7snzz8qdrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=f83ff82f0980dd30c33bc6886ae7e7ed3a98b72f

More Popular Day Trading Patterns

Using Price Action

Many strategies using simple price action patterns are mistakenly thought to be too basic to yield significant profits. Yet price action strategies are often straightforward to employ and effective, making them ideal for both beginners and experienced traders.
Put simply, price action is how the price is likely to respond at certain levels of resistance or support. Using price action patterns from pdfs and charts will help you identify both swings and trendlines.
Whether you’re day trading stocks or forex or crypto with price patterns, these easy to follow strategies can be applied across the board.

Zone Strategy

So, how do you start day trading with short-term price patterns? you will likely employ a ‘zone strategy’. One obvious bonus to this system is it creates straightforward charts, free from complex indicators and distractions.

https://preview.redd.it/7e5x37zerdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2098a4c9df4a4556c3024cec1c176ce50c9806c0

Dead Zone

This empty zone tells you that the price action isn’t headed anywhere. There is no clear up or down trend, the market is at a standoff. If you want big profits, avoid the dead zone completely. No indicator will help you makes thousands of pips here.

The Red Zone

This is where things start to get a little interesting. Once you’re in the red zone the end goal is in sight, and that one hundred pip winner within reach. For example, if the price hits the red zone and continues to the upside, you might want to make a buy trade. It could be giving you higher highs and an indication that it will become an uptrend.
This will be likely when the sellers take hold. If the price hits the red zone and continues to the downside, a sell trade may be on the cards. You’d have new lower lows and a suggestion that it will become a downtrend.

The End Zone

This is where the magic happens. With this strategy, you want to consistently get from the red zone to the end zone. Draw rectangles on your charts like the ones found in the example. Then only trade the zones. If you draw the red zones anywhere from 10-20 pips wide, you’ll have room for the price action to do its usual retracement before heading to the downside or upside.

Outside Bar At Resistance Or Support

You’ll see a bullish outside bar if today’s low exceeded yesterdays, but the stock still rallies and closes above yesterday’s high. If the complete opposite price action took place, you’d have yourself the perfect bearish example.
Unfortunately, it isn’t as straightforward as identifying an outside candlestick and then just placing a trade. It’s prudent to find an outside day after a major break of a trend.

https://preview.redd.it/egb0lp6grdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0170eceea5006464e5832bc3a9083c72ee677ad

Spring At Support

The spring is when the stock tests the low of a range, but then swiftly comes back into trading zone and sets off a new trend. One common mistake traders make is waiting for the last swing low to be reached. However, as you’ve probably realized already, trading setups don’t usually meet your precise requirements so don’t stress about a few pennies.

https://preview.redd.it/q82lap2hrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e40f0bc25c2df06a1d93edb68b293c858a32592

Little To No Price Retracement

Put simply, less retracement is proof the primary trend is robust and probably going to continue. Forget about coughing up on the numerous Fibonacci retracement levels. The main thing to remember is that you want the retracement to be less than 38.2%. This means even when today’s asset tests the previous swing, you’ll have a greater chance that the breakout will either hold or continue towards the direction of the primary trend.

https://preview.redd.it/ey997b2irdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=c938aac51e3b3bbf1f45a11c46f4ae3dfd1b6dd4
Trading with price patterns to hand enables you to try any of these strategies. Find the one that fits in with your individual trading style. Remember, you’ll often find the best trading chart patterns aren’t overly complex, instead they paint a clear picture using minimal indicators, reducing the likelihood of mistakes and distraction.

Consider Time Frames

When you start trading with your short term price patterns pdf to hand, it’s essential you also consider time frames in your calculations. In your market, you’ll find a number of time frames simultaneously co-existing. This means you can find conflicting trends within the particular asset your trading. Your stock could be in a primary downtrend whilst also being in an intermediate short-term uptrend.
Many traders make the mistake of focusing on a specific time frame and ignoring the underlying influential primary trend. Usually, the longer the time frame the more reliable the signals. When you reduce your time frames you’ll be distracted by false moves and noise.
Many traders download examples of short-term price patterns but overlook the underlying primary trend, do not make this mistake. You should trade-off 15-minute charts, but utilize 60-minute charts to define the primary trend and 5-minute charts to establish the short-term trend.

Wrapping Up

Our understanding of chart patterns has come along way since the initial 1932 work of Richard Schabacker in ‘Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits’. Schabacker asserted then, ‘any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental…’ So whilst there is an abundance of patterns out there, remember accurate analysis and sustained practice is required to fully reap their benefits.

The source : https://www.daytrading.com/patterns
submitted by JalelTounsi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 25, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
Crosspost: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg47569859#msg47569859
History
—08-JAN-2018: Elliott Wave, https://redd.it/7ptsg3
—12-JAN-2018: Crypto Black Monday, https://redd.it/7pxg0d
—24-JAN-2018: Dotcom vs Crypto, https://redd.it/7skzff
—21-FEB-2018: Bear Market Resumes, https://redd.it/7z8u6n
—28-FEB-2018: Halfway Through, https://redd.it/7umjf9
—13-MAR-2018: Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand, #10kNeverAgain: https://redd.it/842ssd
—19-MAR-2018: Equinox, https://redd.it/85m5tr
—03-APR-2018: April Fools’ Rally, https://redd.it/89jqye
—19-APR-2018: 420 High, https://redd.it/8dbz4f
—25-APR-2018: Symmetrical Triangle, https://redd.it/8ev2ki
—06-MAY-2018: Ten Thousand Tease, https://redd.it/8hdhjn
—29-MAY-2018: Triangle Phinance, https://redd.it/8mwx6z
—10-JUN-2018: Triangle Phinance II, https://redd.it/8q5p68
—23-JUL-2018: Redux, https://redd.it/913xx6
—02-SEP-2018: #ShortSeptember, https://redd.it/9c96vk
—04-NOV-2018: Inflection Point, https://redd.it/9u1y3z
TLDR: https://i.imgur.com/EGmziB1.png
The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bear market of 2018 has reached a point of inflection, where alternative scenarios and projections can now be explored using Elliott Wave theory.
From the 17-DEC-2017 high to the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market endured a 70% price collapse from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX). In Elliott Wave parlance, this first phase crash is a simple but sharp three wave a-b-c zigzag pattern.
From the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market then wandered sideways for 168 days until 24-JUL-2018, creating a floor of support at $6,000 whilst making successively lower highs. The psychological $6,000 price has been guarded since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap. In Elliott Wave parlance, this second phase of market development is a triangle pattern consisting of five a-b-c-d-e waves. The internal structure of the waves within the triangle are related to each other in terms of length as the following Fibonacci ratios:
wave-c = wave-a * 0.618 wave-d = wave-b * 0.786 wave-e = wave-c * 0.786 
https://i.imgur.com/Bm4Nx7a.png
The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):
@5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high. @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market. 
Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.
Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets.
An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure.
https://i.imgur.com/vePkBiL.png
In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020.
In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices…
Bear Market Inflection Points
—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.
Bull Market Inflection Points
—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.
Notes
—Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018
—S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market.
—Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020.
—US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes.
Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.
—BTC (Weekly): https://i.imgur.com/B0ftUHf.png
—BTC (Daily): https://i.imgur.com/ljfMvlt.png
—BTC (4-hr): https://i.imgur.com/Ip1QQTe.png
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Nov 27, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

Basics and Core Concepts of Forex Trading.

There are many ways to go about trading in the Forex markets but no matter how you go about it there are going to be some basics you need to know to be able to trade Forex.
The first is understanding money management. (L2A) How much risk to be taking on positions and how to size your positions to ensure you are taking the correct amount of risk. Learning about how to use stop losses and take profits to get you out of losing trades before they get worse and to bank your profits before the market moves back against you.
Get the hang of these first. How to do the maths to work out what you should be risking, how to size your position to risk that amount and how to place that trade using the trading platform you are using. Before even learning anything about how to pick a trade, learn how to place one that risks an appropriate amount of your capital.
Secondly, you want to decide what type of trader you want to be. Traders typically split into three main groups, known as "swing traders", "day traders" and "scalpers". The main difference between these groups of trades is the amount of time they are in a trade. Swing traders trade over day, weeks and months, day traders are typically in and out on the same day, sometimes running into a second day and scalpers can be in and out of trades in minutes or even seconds.
Which style is suitable for you is going to depend up many variables and you should see how each style of trading matches up with your lifestyle and attitude. For most people it is going to be better starting out with swing trading, or at least holding positions for a few days.
Thirdly, get to know the basic terms and jargon of the analysis type you choose to use most often. Most people in Forex use technical analysis (L2A) to at least some degree so that can be a good place to start.
When learning about technical analysis, there is an extreme overload of information open to you. It is best to initially focus on some core concepts of how a chart tends to form. These core concepts are "support and resistance"(L2A), "markets swings/highs lows", "ranges (L2A)", "breakouts(L2A)" and "trend formations(L2A)".
You will better understand the many of the concepts listed above by first taking some time to learn about "candlesticks", how to read a candle(L2A), its open and close and classic candle patterns(L2A).
With an understanding of these concepts, you should be well set to understand theoretically how the basic ebb and flow of a market works and the stereotypical patterns we see in different market conditions. You won't know enough to be a profitable trader at this point, just the chart will have stopped looking like a bunch of entirely random lines.
Now you can start to learn about various different indicators that may be helpful to you in your analysis and you can start to work on forming trading strategies around them. By this point, you should be getting an idea if really do like trading and if it is something you want to pursue further. If so, you want to start to learn more about the things critical to long term success.
This trading psychology (L2A) and strategy development (L2A). Becoming proficient at understanding the concepts of analysis and spotting trading opportunities can only take you so far, you must also be able to structure this knowledge into quantifiable strategies to aim for consistent long term success.
Also, you need to have the correct psychological understanding of controlling your greed and fear as well as accepting that nothing is ever certain in the Forex markets and sometimes you can be doing everything perfectly (as per your strategy) and just be on a bad run(L2A). You need to learn how to stick to your strategy. Not take impulsive trades.(L2A) Not change the risk you take by making rash decisions.
Once you have this, you can begin to focus on developing your strategy and testing it, improving it and working out its strengths and limitations. You should be tracking your trades and making observations on them that you can later reference and perhaps use to improve the strategy. At this point, many successful trades seem to really zoom in on something. What everyone does varies but it is a common trait of successful trades to be an expert in a small area, rather than a jack of all trades.
Through your learning of the core concepts and then some more advanced ways to enhance them, and your chart time testing these out, you should have gotten a fair idea of what you think works and what you think does not. What set ups you can spot and what ones you can't. What sort of trades suit your trading style and what ones do not. Now you want to pick the very optimum of what you have learned, discard the rest and focus on getting a repeatable set of rules that you can execute 1,000s of trades on over multiple years and it be profitable.
This all takes time and these are the things required to become a Forex trader with your own trading strategies. If these are not things you want to do then you can look to see if you can buy a strategy someone else has made and learn that, or invest with someone. The latter is probably better, since if you do not want to do the things it takes to learn to trade there really is not a lot of point in you trading when someone else can probably do it better for you.
Now See;
Money Management (L2A)Basics of candlesticks (L2A)Support and resistance (L2A)

(L2A) = Link to be added.
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 11, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 04, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 18, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

Requesting Feedback On My New Strategy

I will start off saying I do indeed trade live with a small $1000 USD acc, but only part time.
RSI 14, EMA 5, 10 and 200. You could summarize my strategy as a daily trend breakout scalp. I usually stick to the major pairs, however I have a small watchlist of current trending pairs.
After analyzing my above indicators and watching EMA crossovers, I quite simply place pending BUY or SELL orders at the top of the current daily candlestick wick with a automated 2-3 pip TP and a 0.7 pip protection once 2 pips are reached. I technically have a stop loss but it is usually placed at a strong S/R line on the hourly chart.
I recall a YouTube seminar where the speaker explained how everyone tries to eat the entire Forex brownie, eventually you will overeat and lose/throw up everything. And how he tries to just nibble on the crusty bits along the edges.
This is a basis of my strategy: Get in the money and out as quick as possible. The trend is your friend. Your indicators are tools, not money makers.
Nearly 3 months of trial and over 100 trades, not one single loss. 2-3 pips per trade doesn't seem like much but with some very small leverage and a medium size 5 figure account (very feasible for me) one could easily generate sufficient cash flow.
submitted by armaida to Forex [link] [comments]

How to Get Benefit With Trading Triangles

How to Get Benefit With Trading Triangles

Trading Triangles
Triangles are one of the price action concepts of the chart. Triangles can reveal us many things about the market scenario, momentum shifts and the balance between bulls and bears. Triangles are made by uniting two trend lines where one is resistance and another is a bullish or bearish line. Every trend line comprises two or more than two prices thus, upper and lower trend lines necessitate at least two or more points in price.There are three diverse types of triangles and which are explained below
  1. Symmetrical Triangle
  2. Ascending Triangle
  3. Descending Triangle
Symmetrical Triangle
In this triangle, the upper trend line is leaning downward, and the lower trend line is inclined upward at the same angle. The connection between these two trend lines is called “Apex” whereas the base is away from the first high point and first low point.

Symmetrical Triangle
This pattern is bullish in an uptrend as it shows the high possibility of the continuation of the current uptrend. In reverse, this pattern indicates a high possibility of continuation of the downtrend too. The potential price fluctuation can be calculated by the tallness of the base. This is assumed that the breakout of symmetrical triangles usually happens in the direction of the trend. The probability of success is, therefore, greater when we think of symmetrical triangles as being a continuation pattern of forex prices or derivatives prices.
Ascending Triangle
In this triangle, the upper trend line must be horizontal, and the lower trend line should be upward inclined. The horizontal upper trend line of such pattern specifies the resistance which is stopping the price from going further up but the upward slanting lower trend line voices us about the occurrence of an uptrend.

Ascending Triangle
These kind of patterns are bullish and normally found in an up-trending market. It has an apex point and a base. The minimum price movement is equal to the height of the base from the breakout point same as similar triangle patterns.
Descending Triangle
In this triangle, the upper trend line should be downward tending and lower trend line must be horizontal. The horizontal lower trend line of such pattern stipulates a support line and this support line is preventing the price from going more down. However, the upward inclined lower trend line displays the manifestation of a downtrend.

Descending Triangle
These triangle patterns are bearish in nature and typically originate in a downward market. It also has an apex and a base point. The smallest price fluctuation is equal to the height of the base from the breakout point.Triangle breaks out patterns are very popular among most of the trader regardless of the forex, commodity or stock markets. Their best use may lead to winning the trade however their confirmation is required before placing the orders.
Alfa Financials offers a full suite of the best trading platform for beginners and professional traders. To view our customizable trader platforms, we are the trusted and experienced regulated online forex brokers for Forex, Futures, CFD and Currency Trading.
submitted by alfafinancials5 to u/alfafinancials5 [link] [comments]

Dual Thrust Trading strategy

Dual Thrust Trading strategy
Abstract
The Dual Thrust trading algorithm is a famous strategy developed by Michael Chalek. It has been commonly used in futures, forex and equity markets. The idea of Dual Thrust is similar to a typical breakout system, however dual thrust uses the historical price to construct update the look back period - theoretically making it more stable in any given period. www.fmz.com
In this tutorial we give an instruction details to the strategy and show how to implement this algorithm on FMZ. After pulling in the historical price of the chosen trading pairs, the range is calculated based on the close, high and low over the most recent N-days. A position is opened when the market moves a certain range from the opening price. We tested the strategy on individual trading pairs under two market states a trending market and range bound market. The results suggest this momentum trading system works better in trending market but will trigger some fake buy and sell signals in much more volatile market. Under the range bound market, we can adjust the parameters to get better return. As a comparison of individual trading pairs, we also implemented the strategy on BTC/USDT. The result suggested that the strategy beat the market.
Its logical prototype is one of the more common Day trading strategies. The opening range breakout strategy is based on today's opening price plus or minus a certain percentage of yesterday's amplitude to determine the upper and lower rails. When the price breaks through the upper track, it will buy long, and when it breaks the lower track, it will sell short.
The basic principle of this strategy www.fmz.com
  1. after the market closed today, calculate two values: the highest price - the closing price, and the closing price - the lowest price. Then take the one which is larger in these two values, multiply this value by 0.7. let’s call it value K. The result is called the trigger value.
  2. after the market opening tomorrow, record the opening price, then buy immediately when the price exceeds (opening price + trigger value), or sell short when the price is lower than (opening price - trigger value).
  3. This strategy has no clear stop loss. This system is a reverse system, that is, if there is a short position order holding at the price exceed the (open + trigger value), then it will send two buying order (one to close the wrong position, another one to open the new position for the right direction). For the same reason, if there is a long position order holding at the price lower the (opening-trigger value), then it will send two selling order.
Which by mathematical expiation is :
range=max(HH−LC,HC−LL)
The long signal is calculated by
cap=open+K1×Rangecap=open+K1×Range
. The short signal is calculated by
floor=open–K2×Rangefloor=open–K2×Range
where K1 and K2 are the parameters. When K1 is greater than K2, it is much easier to trigger the long signal and vice versa. For demonstration, here we choose K1 = K2 = 0.5. In live trading, we can still use historical data to optimize those parameters or adjust the parameters according to the market trend. K1 should be small than k2 if you are bullish on the market and k1 should be much bigger if you are bearish on the market.
www.fmz.com
This system is a reversal system, so if the investor holds a short position when the price breaks the cap line, the short margin should be liquidated first before opening a long position. If the investor holds a long position when the price breaks the floor line, the long margin should be liquidated first before opening a new short position.
Dual Thrust has made improvements in this opening range breakthrough strategy: www.fmz.com
  1. In the range setting, the four price points of the previous N days are introduced, so that the range in a certain period is relatively stable, and can be applied to the daytime trend tracking;
2, Dual Thrust for the buying long and selling short trigger conditions, consider the asymmetric amplitude, long and short reference Range can choose a different number of cycles, can also be determined by parameters K1 and K2. When K1K2, the short position is relatively easy to be triggered.
Therefore, when using this strategy, on the one hand, you can refer to the optimal parameters of historical data testing. On the other hand, you can start to adjust K1 and K2 in stages according to your own judgment of the post-trend or from other major cycle technical indicators.
This is a typical trading way of waiting for signals, entering the market, arbitrage, and leaving the market, but the effect is outstanding. www.fmz.com
www.fmz.com
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

How to Develop a Profitable Bitcoin & Altcoins Daytrading Strategy - Fundamental & Technical Analysis - An Intermediate Tutorial

Abstracted from my blog post. Read the Full Post at: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/03/how-to-bitcoin-altcoins-daytrading-fundamental-technical-analysis-profitable-trading-strategy.html. Follow me on Twitter for my latest Bitcoin/Altcoin trading advice @onemanatatime (https://twitter.com/onemanatatime).
Fundamental Analysis
I believe that for an Altcoin to be worth anything at all, it MUST first have technical aspects which are built with the future in mind. This is what solely determines if a cryptocurrency has the potential for the mid to long term. Even with 5 new altcoins launching everyday, you barely see 1 a month that can last even the mid-term.
Then, after that I judge the coins based on 7 mediating factors; developers, community, branding/marketing, popularity/virality, novelty, infrastructure, and liquidity. For more about fundamental analysis and an explanation of these factors, read up on the first few sections in my previous post about picking and trading the next profitable altcoin. In this post, I will focus more on technical analysis and trading strategies instead.
With so many coins out there, I like to use these above factors to weed out all the weaker shitcoins, and focus on altcoins which are substantially different from others, and more importantly, provide more value than other cryptocurrencies. After which, I use Technical Analysis to judge entry/exit positions for trading them.
What else do you think makes a cryptocurrency fundamentally better than another, and more sustainable as a currency?
Technical Analysis
Many will probably agree when I say that the Altcoins market is akin to the "penny stocks" of cryptocurrencies. In this sense, most altcoin markets have much lower liquidity, but have much higher volatility. Since there are over 200 different cryptocurrency markets to date, I prefer to narrow down my list of altcoins to a small handful, and buy under-valued coins or trade the breakouts. You're going to find it really tough to be watching more than 5 altcoins at the same time, so I highly suggest keeping your list small, and adapt your watchlist to the fast changing markets.
If you're new to technical analysis, here's a really good beginner's video on daytrading Penny Stocks, which also explains the basics of chart reading and an introduction to basic trading jargon that I'll be using throughout this post. The important concepts to take note of are resistances & supports, breakouts that coincide with high volume, and the general idea that "what goes up must come down". See video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYK2a77TjvU
So after you get the basics sorted out, you should be ready to learn how to trade! I'm gonna break this intermediate technical analysis tutorial down into five main portions, and have compiled videos from other trading experts to give even beginners a better overall idea, and teach you all you need to know to devise your own Bitcoin & Altcoins trading strategy.
1. Top Down Analysis
Firstly, lets look at the top down analysis method of reading charts. I always begin by trying to understand the market from a bird eye's view. Compare both charts from a long term period (e.g. 1d) against one from a shorter period (e.g. 15m) to get a holistic view of the market. This will help give you a general perspective of market trends, while peaks & troughs give you an idea of market resistances & supports.
Use these basic resistance & support levels to judge entry/exit prices. In general, previous high and low points are new resistances or support depending on where the price is, and points where u can see big breakouts will be the new short term resistance/support. To get a better idea of what I mean, watch these videos by Jason Stapleton who explains top down analysis, resistances & supports, and structure.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9yCc7lD21Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJmMU-8yicM
2. Retracements
The concept of retracements is, in my opinion, the most important one that any trading enthusiast must grasp in order to understand how the markets flow. In essence, a retracement is a temporary price movement against the established trend, and helps us understand that the markets move in wave patterns as highlighted by the Elliott Wave Theory. One way to look at it, as highlighted by this video below, is that most price-actions follow a pullback rule to fibonacci retracement levels (38%, 50%, 62%).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VSWqM0jfIQ
The most important concept to take away from this is "what goes up must come down"; that price movements in one direction are always followed by retracements in the opposite direction. Of course, not all movements will follow the same pullbacks, and these levels should only be used as a guide. Here's another video: "Understanding Fibonacci retracement lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzHjxPxGzMw".
So the question then is, how will we know if this counter-movement price action is a retracement or a reversal? There is no way to say for certain...
Read the full post on my blog at: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/03/how-to-bitcoin-altcoins-daytrading-fundamental-technical-analysis-profitable-trading-strategy.html.
3. Trading on Volume
Another important concept you need to understand is that large price movements almost always coincide with high trading volume.
With this in mind, this is where the liquidity of an altcoin also comes into play; the higher the trade volume of an altcoin, the lower the spreads, and the more likely you will be able to make some profitable trades from it. In general, the trade volume is a good indicator of, and is proportional to the popularity of the altcoin at the current time.
Apart from the actual trading volume itself, another good indicator is the change in volume over time; if you realize that the trading volume of an altcoin has been steadily increasing over the last few days, it could be an indication that a big price movement is coming up.
4. Breakout Patterns
The last concept I want to share is breakout patterns. Although most people are familiar with this concept, many do not know how to profit from them. This is one of the best tools to use for planning your entry positions, while there are various ways to do so, which are highlighted by these first two videos below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YZ4ORz-UJ0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gN-6D8nH0E
5. Advanced Trading Strategies
Now comes the fun part: how can we take all that we've learnt so far and put into good use for trading Bitcoin/Altcoins? Here are some pointers for you:
In the next videos, more advanced trading strategies and chart patterns will be shared. These strategies may seem very specific, but my goal is to give you better understanding of how these analysis tools are used, and to give you an idea of how different tools can be used to develop a single trading setup. The specifics are not important; what I hope to achieve is to open up your minds to new ideas, expand your trading knowledge, and ultimately encourage you to explore a diverse variety of trading strategies.
Read up more on some of the main ideas discussed:
Others
Read the full post on my blog at: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/03/how-to-bitcoin-altcoins-daytrading-fundamental-technical-analysis-profitable-trading-strategy.html. If you'd like to discuss any ideas or have burning questions, feel free to email me at alvinlee133(at)gmail.com or hit me up on twitter @onemanatatime.
P.S. If you're new here, make sure to check out my previous posts about Bitcoin & Altcoins daytrading: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/01/beginners-guide-margin-trading-bitfinex-exchange.html http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/01/embarking-on-my-bitcoin-trading-journey.html
P.P.S. If this post helped you, feel free to buy me a cup of coffee!
Cryptsy Trade Key: 9c1e289981a685bf0b8a4e48bc00b35eb1380afa
BTC: 16ka98tnhs9fAjWEXRmEWVrPfTEwmr9orV
LTC: LW4qr8aSfgTwGuU6uvEjnhNKRyJJR9iUbR
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Triangle Understanding

In my previous post I indicating a bearish wedge forming on the AUDUSD pair. You can find that post here
Some of you indicated this is probably incorrect (and is a triangle pattern instead of wedge, my terminology was wrong) and indeed over the next few days the AUDUSD pair bounced off the trend line and is rising.
So first things first, how do you determine which side of a triangle a breakout will occur on? I haven't been trading long but I've seen two triangles 'in the wild', a USDJPY descending triangle with a long breakout, and and the AUDUSD triangle which looks likely for a long breakout.
My question is, how do you determine where the breakout in a triangle will occur?
In the USDJPY triangle it went against the falling resistances, and in the AUDUSD triangle it is expected to go with the rising supports. This fact is confusing me on the trends of triangles since as far as I can tell they had are the exact opposites.
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Stowell’s Three Bar Net Line Forex Indicator Three Line Break – indicator for MetaTrader 4 3 line MACD Forex MT4 Indicator Amazing Breakout Indicator Trading Forex Forex Line Breakout Strategy - Indicator Version 9

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